Y2K--TNT

Y2K--TNT

Back in the days before the Internet and World Wide Web, when Windows 95 was just a gleam in Bill Gates' eye, the basic internal operations of a computer were much more difficult to program or encode. Those days of DOS required knowledge of Fortran or Cobol, Assembly or Ada or other arcane language.
Advances we take for granted now were minimal then -- massive storage or memory were nonexistent; space was at a premium, for kilobytes were more possible than terabytes. It was important, therefore, to consume as little space as possible.
In the 1970's, because of that limitation, programmers wrote the code into computer chips with a fatal shortcut. By abbreviating the four-digit year into two digits (i.e., 76 instead of 1976, 81 for 1981, etc.), a little memory space could be saved, along with the time it took to type in a redundant "19."
But "19" would not always be redundant. Twenty-five years ago, the year 2000 was comfortably remote. The "fatal shortcut" was of no concern. As 1/1/2000 more quickly approaches, we now know how careless that shortcut was and how far-reaching its damage will be. In hindsight, the problem seems quite obvious and huge. The Year 2000 problem. Y2K.

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We took for granted that the computer would assume all years began with "19," and that was fine for decades. But now, when it's time for the year 2000, computers will still assume the first two digits are "19" ... it'll be 1900, and any later dates will evaporate. Not all computers, of course. Those with processors 286 through 486 can possibly get by with a software fix, and Pentiums (the 586) may have ready compliance.
But the older chips are at risk. Mainframes. Those behind the network systems vital to our infrastructure. Every facet of our lives will be affected. The comfort of once-routine integration between computers and commerce will come to a halt. And there is no solution, for some of these faulty chips are in places we cannot easily reach ... like satellites. And some new chips are still being encoded with the faulty shortcut, like those at the new Denver International Airport.
Despite huge sums now spent on programmers to fix the problem, not all computers in the network will be fixed, and the network chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Even if nine out of ten are corrected in time, the one that isn't can ruin the rest. A destruction by co-dependency. One rotten apple, etc. With thirty billion faulty chips, the Millennium Bug will cause an epic disaster.
Our social system is merely a thin bubble of faith and confidence -- as long as most people have it, the bubble remains intact. At any one time, only a small number will need
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to drain a bank account. As long as most people have no such need or desire, it won't matter that banks have only a tiny portion of our money on hand.
Many believe their money is guaranteed, that every account is insured for $100,000 by the FDIC. But many would be surprised to know the FDIC has only about $30 billion, which may not be enough to cover the failure of even ONE major bank if depositors depart in droves. Such is the damning legacy of mega-mergers. At that point the bubble will burst and, along with it, the illusion of stability.
Computers are a blessing and a damnation. When they work, everything is fine; when they don't, everything stops. And when they're all linked together, everything stops everywhere. Globally. Everything carried by truck or plane or boat or train ... all is connected by computer. Every bank and all stock markets ... connected by computer. Social Security, Medicare, and all other financial aid offices, even the nation's tax collection agencies and the IRS ... connected by computer. Telephones and fax machines and all communication systems ... connected by computer. Hospitals, employment agencies, contractors, suppliers, police and fire departments ... connected by computer. Military and weapons systems, governmental offices and emergency services ... etc., etc. -- all are connected by computers with a glitch, a fatal glitch.
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The problem is so pervasive and absolute that a significant number of those who most understand it -- the programmers -- have realized its futility. They've committed to the only rational conclusion and plan to remove all their assets from any bank or stock market before the inevitable, catastrophic beginning ... 1/1/2000.
Yes ... banks. Are we smarter than those computer programmers? Will we keep our money in banks that may no longer know our accounts? Will we trust our broker with the stocks or bonds or mutual funds that represent our life's work? Will we be able to count on the next check for Social Security or Medicare or retirement or food stamps or AFDC? Will anybody answer the phone when everybody calls at the same time? Will there be enough food or gas or power or other essentials in a time of stampede or panic? Will you be able to reach an elected "problem solver" then ... a mayor, governor, senator or other representative; how about the President?
These questions must be addressed ... January 1st of 2000 will have no small impact as Y2K becomes the oversight of the technological age and institutions implode: Banks may close, stock markets collapse, food supplies exhaust and water gets valuable, transportation unreliable, government unresponsive, taxes uncollectable, records lost, order derailed, chaos rampant, civility gone. And in that time of great stress, our former reliance on the comfort of computers will prove a great test of humanity when that comfort is no longer assured.
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Patience and kindness will be rare as gold when those long-steeped in selfish whims now find no instant caterer. Citizens most comfortable and coddled will not be pleased when no one answers the bell.
Unscrupulous men of great power will seize the moment as a National Emergency and commandeer the cities, forcing Martial Law and suspending normal rights and freedom. Amid a lengthy deprivation, heated frustration in the populace will soon warm into anger and ignite scattered sparks of indignation and revolt.
As with a woman scorned, those of once fervid belief will be first to the torch and loudest in holding the leaders accountable. Consensus of the gathering crowds will be for the old ways, for truth and light, and every rock will be overturned for exposure of the rot beneath. It will be a "spring cleaning" like no other.
The Millennium "problem" will do far more than merely stop a convenient lifestyle. The changes it will wreak, far from cosmetic, will foster a long-sleeping paradigm of insistence on what is right and true. A disgust for exploitation. Intolerance for injustice. Indeed, it will be a most fortuitous "bug," for it will finally force us to be the people we always felt we were. Amen.